The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021) has documented a noticeable shift in extreme weather and climate events since the mid-20th century. As society evolves, understanding these extreme temperature events is crucial for assessing risks and implementing effective mitigation strategies across various sectors, including healthcare, economic development, agriculture, and infrastructure. Research highlighted an increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures since 1950, leading to more frequent warm days, prolonged heatwaves, and fewer cold extremes.
In Ireland, similar patterns have been observed. Studies from 2007 reported a rise in both maximum and minimum temperatures from 1961 to 2005, while a newer study from 2020 noted an increase in extreme temperature events in County Dublin between 1981 and 2010. These studies, however, only considered the marginal behavior of temperature extremes. The need for comprehensive models that capture the spatial and temporal evolution of these events is evident.
Researchers at Maynooth University's Hamilton Institute have developed a new model to track how extreme temperature events evolve over time in Ireland. This model looks at temperature variations across different areas, considers how extreme weather events affect various locations, and examines how these events change over time. The researchers used both observational data and climate model data to gain a better understanding of the physical processes driving climate change.
Led by Prof. Andrew Parnell and Dr. Dáire Healy, the team employed advanced methods to analyze daily maximum summer temperatures. Their findings show a 35% increase in high-temperature events from 1942 to 2020, with extreme temperatures rising by 1.2-2.2°C. Additionally, the area affected by heatwaves has more than doubled for temperatures of 28°C or higher. These results emphasize the importance of developing strong climate adaptation strategies to address the growing impact of extreme heat events.
This research has profound implications, especially for policymakers and stakeholders in public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure. The ability to predict how often, how severe, and how widespread extreme temperature events will be provides a valuable tool for planning and reducing risks. Since climate models are the best way to predict future extreme weather patterns, connecting changes over time in both observational and climate data is crucial.
Professor Parnell emphasized that the changes in extreme temperatures are much larger than the changes in average temperatures, underscoring the urgency for societal adaptation. This model's ability to capture location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperatures provides critical insights for addressing the challenges posed by climate change. The research team's findings, presented at The Royal Statistical Society meeting on June 3, 2024, demonstrate the necessity of integrating climate science with policy to safeguard against the increasing risks associated with extreme temperature events.
