The C-SEF report emphasizes the importance of understanding how climate change perceptions impact voter behavior, especially with the 2024 election approaching. Matthew Burgess, CIRES Fellow and C-SEF director, noted that reducing political polarization on climate change is a critical area of interest for their research group, and these insights provide valuable information for politicians and advocates across the political spectrum.
Despite the strong influence of climate change on voting patterns in 2020, it is not the top concern for most voters. Less than 5% of adults rank climate change as their most important issue, with priorities such as the economy, health care, education, and crime taking precedence.
The question arises: If climate change isn't the top issue, why does it strongly predict voting behavior? One reason could be the perceived reliability of a candidate's stance on climate change as a proxy for their trustworthiness on other issues. Voters might also be linking climate change to more immediate concerns such as economic stability, security, and health.
A January 2024 survey by the Yale University Program on Climate Change Communication supports these findings. It revealed that those who acknowledge climate change outnumber skeptics by five to one. However, despite this growing awareness, engagement remains low, with 65% of Americans rarely or never discussing the issue with family and friends.
Younger generations, particularly those involved in movements like Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future, demonstrate higher levels of climate change awareness and anxiety compared to older generations. In 2020, Friends of the Earth found that over two-thirds of young adults aged 18-24 experienced climate anxiety. This trend reflects the growing concern among youth about long-term climate impacts and government inaction.
A global survey of 10,000 young people aged 16-25, conducted in December 2021, revealed widespread anxiety about climate change. The survey reported high levels of worry and negative emotions such as sadness, anger, and guilt across all countries involved.
Older generations show concern primarily for the short-term impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather and poor air quality. While there is extensive research on the physical effects of climate change on the elderly, there is less focus on the psychological toll. Feelings of guilt and anxiety among older adults may stem from a perceived responsibility for environmental degradation and its impact on future generations.
The belief that human activities drive climate change rebounded in 2024, with 54% of respondents to an University of Chicago Energy Policy Institute (EPIC) Poll agreeing with this view. Notably, this increase was driven by younger Republicans, with 40% now acknowledging human-driven climate change, up from 26% in 2017.
Experiencing extreme climate events significantly influences belief in climate change. The 2024 poll found that those who have faced extreme weather are more likely to see climate change as a critical issue and support actions to mitigate its effects. This is evident as the gap in belief between those who have and have not experienced such events has widened significantly.
Extreme climate events are prompting some Americans to consider relocation. The EPIC poll indicates that one in five Americans would contemplate moving to avoid extreme weather, with those in the West South Central region showing the highest likelihood of considering relocation.
There is a shift in the perceived responsibility for addressing climate change. More Americans now believe that rapidly developing countries like India and China have a greater responsibility than developed nations. This view aligns more with Republican perspectives, whereas Democrats tend to hold corporations and the federal government more accountable.
The EPIC poll also shows bipartisan support for wind and solar energy projects, with six in ten Americans in favor of such developments in their communities. However, there remains a partisan divide on climate policies, with Democrats showing stronger support for regulations and incentives aimed at reducing emissions.
Electric vehicle (EV) ownership remains low, but interest in purchasing EVs is growing. The Biden administration's targets for EV adoption are ambitious, yet challenges such as awareness of charging stations and concerns about cost and range persist.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, climate change will likely continue to be a pivotal issue for voters. Understanding the diverse perspectives and concerns across generations and political affiliations can help shape more effective climate policies and political strategies.
