A new study, published in Nature Sustainability and led by Dr. Florian Zabel and Prof. Dr. Ruth Delzeit from the University of Basel’s Department of Environmental Sciences, provides critical insights into the future of global agriculture. As demands for food production rise, the expansion of global cultivation areas brings with it both opportunities and significant challenges. This research shows where agricultural expansion is most likely to occur and what the environmental and economic impacts of these changes are.
According to the study, global cultivation areas are expected to expand by 3.6% by 2030, increasing agricultural production by 2%. The researchers developed a sophisticated land-use model to predict which regions will most likely experience this growth, factoring in socio-economic and agroecological criteria.
The most striking conclusion is that future agricultural expansion is expected to concentrate primarily in tropical regions, including parts of Central and South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Despite ongoing climate change, these areas still hold significant potential for increasing agricultural production. However, this potential comes with substantial environmental costs.
One of the most concerning findings from the study is the environmental toll of expanding agricultural lands. Tropical regions, often rich in forests and biodiversity, face considerable risks if converted into farmland. Croplands, for instance, store far less carbon than natural vegetation, such as rainforests. The study estimates that agricultural expansion could release approximately 17 gigatons of CO2—nearly half of the current annual global CO2 emissions. This increase in greenhouse gases would represent a significant setback for global climate protection efforts.
Moreover, the study predicts a 26% decline in biodiversity in areas affected by land-use changes. As forests and other natural habitats are converted to agricultural land, ecosystems that support a wide range of plant and animal species are destroyed. This biodiversity loss disrupts local environments and reduces agricultural systems' resilience to pests, diseases, and climate variations.
While the need for increased food production is clear, the study highlights the delicate balance between expanding agricultural land and protecting natural ecosystems. Recent political efforts, such as those outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, emphasize the importance of conserving forests, wetlands, and other protected areas. The international goal to protect 30% of the global land surface by 2030 is critical in maintaining biodiversity and mitigating climate change.
However, the study points out that conservation policies could have unintended side effects if not carefully implemented. For instance, restricting agricultural expansion in forests or wetlands could push development into grasslands, which also hold valuable biodiversity. Grasslands typically have higher species diversity than croplands, and their conversion could lead to further ecological losses.
Lead author Julia Schneider of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München explains, “Contrary to expectations, the preservation of forests, wetlands, and existing protected areas has little impact on the GDP of the respective regions. Global agricultural production is also only slightly reduced as a result. In return, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by expansion are significantly reduced.”
This finding suggests that the apparent conflict between agricultural expansion and environmental protection can be mitigated with careful planning. Conservation makes economic sense when long-term environmental costs, such as carbon emissions and biodiversity loss, are considered.
The study’s findings offer crucial insights for policymakers and agricultural planners. The research enables more targeted and effective conservation strategies by identifying the regions most at risk from agricultural expansion. This is especially important as global efforts, such as the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, seek to protect 30% of the planet’s land by 2030.
Dr. Florian Zabel, the co-lead researcher, emphasizes the importance of strategic planning, stating, “This research enables the planning of protected areas in such a way that they achieve the broadest possible impact on as many objectives as possible—such as climate and biodiversity protection—while also considering economic interests.”
By balancing the need for increased food production with the preservation of ecosystems, policymakers can help ensure a more sustainable future. When paired with technological innovations in agriculture, conservation efforts could help maintain food security without further degrading the planet’s natural resources.
